Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.013889 0.015730 0.017726 0.020053 0.022693 0.025594 0.029027
2025-06-29 0.010746 0.013223 0.016141 0.019837 0.024399 0.029853 0.036880
2025-07-06 0.008783 0.011432 0.014734 0.019160 0.024948 0.032275 0.042284
2025-07-13 0.007927 0.010806 0.014566 0.019844 0.027084 0.036697 0.050479
2025-07-20 0.007208 0.010227 0.014330 0.020328 0.028904 0.040769 0.058516
2025-07-27 0.006672 0.009812 0.014234 0.020939 0.030887 0.045172 0.067368
2025-08-03 0.006017 0.009139 0.013683 0.020801 0.031726 0.047952 0.074052
2025-08-10 0.005497 0.008603 0.013261 0.020784 0.032699 0.050958 0.081291
2025-08-17 0.004968 0.007994 0.012661 0.020415 0.033059 0.053010 0.087168
2025-08-24 0.004643 0.007672 0.012467 0.020653 0.034378 0.056646 0.095882
2025-08-31 0.004279 0.007249 0.012068 0.020508 0.035034 0.059229 0.103034
2025-09-07 0.004078 0.007074 0.012057 0.020999 0.036784 0.063754 0.113881
2025-09-14 0.003669 0.006516 0.011362 0.020271 0.036394 0.064636 0.118502
2025-09-21 0.003380 0.006141 0.010953 0.020008 0.036801 0.066945 0.125920
2025-09-28 0.003058 0.005679 0.010346 0.019327 0.036375 0.067697 0.130477
2025-10-05 0.002966 0.005630 0.010477 0.020017 0.038549 0.073401 0.144970
2025-10-12 0.002853 0.005530 0.010504 0.020506 0.040373 0.078586 0.158912
2025-10-19 0.002765 0.005467 0.010594 0.021121 0.042491 0.084504 0.174853
2025-10-26 0.002592 0.005225 0.010316 0.020982 0.043084 0.087449 0.184951
2025-11-02 0.002447 0.005026 0.010110 0.020965 0.043919 0.090939 0.196490
2025-11-09 0.002277 0.004761 0.009746 0.020593 0.043976 0.092821 0.204734
2025-11-16 0.002182 0.004645 0.009678 0.020833 0.045350 0.097574 0.219690
2025-11-23 0.002057 0.004454 0.009439 0.020687 0.045870 0.100529 0.230879